Prediction Markets & Idea Futures effect Web Strategy

A wikipedia definition for predicitve markets “Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 23:04:50

Blog posts (555) | Videos (91)
 

Permanent Link to 365. Speculation in crude oil futures markets

365. Speculation in crude oil futures markets When George Bush was inaugurated on January 20, 2001 the NYMEX near futures crude oil contract was $32.19/bbl (see also item 308). On September 10 ... weeks, due to international cooperation and support, the futures price actually fell hitting a low [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 08:57:43

Some Opening Comments November 05 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities declined in overnight trading as the euphoria which drove the market yesterday subsides in favor of a sober ... victory. Futures markets indicate that the US market will post moderate losses when trading begins ... . The 2year/10 year spread has revered some of the narrowing which occurred yesterday and is 2 basis [more...]

Date: 2008-11-05 12:27:43

e-Resources (2)

Three factors determine cash ?ows: (1) sales, (2) after-tax operating pro?t margins, and (3) capital requirements. The price of a ? ... , and other claims on real assets. Spot markets and futures markets are terms that refer to whether ... a wide range of ?nancial services, including investment banking, brokerage operations, insurance [more...]

Date: 2008-12-23 00:33:57

Pre-Market Down 1.7%

As of New York midnight and the start of Monday, it kinda looks like the Paulson equity bear squeeze is over: [ ... Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC.com And the TED spread: Bloomberg.com: Investment Tools [more...]

Date: 2008-09-22 04:45:48

Chart of the day: Did McCain ever have a chance?

This morning, I moseyed over to Iowa Electronic Markets to see what the futures markets were saying about tomorrow’s election. ( ... .) Not surprisingly, people investing real money in election futures contracts give Barack Obama ... contract prices over the last 2+ years. Take a look at it below and click it so you can see it fully [more...]

Date: 2008-11-03 14:16:25

Some Opening Comments December 10 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are retreating in overnight trading as the prospect of an agreement on an auto industry bail out, ... to 2.70 percent and the yield on the Long Bond is higher by 5 basis points at 3.10 percent. Equity ... . Trading in futures markets indicates that US markets should open with modest gains today. Reports [more...]

Date: 2008-12-10 12:25:44

Opening Comments October 22 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities surged in overnight trading as pandemic equity market weakness drove investors to the safety of US Government ... of nearly 6 percent. Futures market trading indicates that US markets will open sharply lower. Against ... on the Long Bond dropped 9 basis points to 4.13 percent. The 2 year/10 year spread has widened [more...]

Date: 2008-10-22 10:58:26

Stocks Among Undecideds Ahead of Election

FUTURES SAY MARKET UNCERTAIN ABOUT DIRECTION Equity investors head to the polls Monday with the choice: ... of the more-recent past. And the indications out of the futures market suggested that investors aren’t sure ... in valuations stocks have fallen to. Of course, those futures themselves have proved [more...]

Date: 2008-11-03 14:10:19

Technical Analysis

by Walter Fox A technique used to forecast the movement of stock prices based on past market data is called technical analysis ... the future of the markets and trading against those predictions. Fundamental Analysis does the same ... such as this, serve as graphic indicators by which an analyst will make trading decisions. Critics argue [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 19:10:02

Oil Scapegoat Update: CFTC Finally Finds Some Evil Speculators!

The Netherlands is known more for its bucolic landscapes, dotted with windmills and tulip beds, than for its connection to energy markets. But that's where the Commodities Futures Trading ... the CFTC launched its probe into irregularities in energy markets. FT: The Commodity Futures Trading [more...]

Date: 2008-07-24 18:13:00

Some Opening Comments September 30 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are retracing a portion of the out sized gains attained yesterday as some participants expect that some form of rescue package will pass later this week. Equity prices are mixed in Europe and futures market trading indicates the US equity markets will open with a strong bounce after the historic fall [more...]

Date: 2008-09-30 11:33:20

Don't Blame the Speculators; Without Futures Markets, Oil Might Be At $200 Instead of $135

Excerpts below from the Fortune Magazine article "Don't Blame the Oil Speculators: ... former U.S. Commodities Futures Trade Commission chief economist Gerald Gay. "No, they're clueless ... Misunderstanding of How Futures Markets Work": Here's a suggestion: The next time a Congressional committee [more...]

Date: 2008-06-28 02:03:05

Some Opening Comments December 15 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have posted modest losses in overseas trading as investors scout the landscape for signs of additional economic ... . Trading in the futures market indicates that the US markets will open with modest gains. The Madoff ... percent. The 2 year /10 year spread narrowed a basis point to 180 basis points. Equity markets [more...]

Date: 2008-12-15 12:24:18

Opening Comment

There is a great song by Bob Dylan entitled “Desolation Row”. It contains a line which is quite apropos this morning ... with European markets down,on balance, about 3.5 percent. Trading in futures markets indicates tht ... Bond has dropped 15 basis points in yield to 4.17 percent. The 2year/10 year spread has widened [more...]

Date: 2008-09-15 10:40:31

More Evidence: Speculators Don't Cause Volatility

Prices were outrageously volatile. While traders attributed the sharp market movements to supply and demand, ... it was before. Exhibit B: The same patterns exists for the second chart of wheat futures ... to convince lawmakers that the futures market for onions was not the cause of the volatility. “ [more...]

Date: 2008-07-08 19:36:56

International Forecaster December 2008 (#6) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman Sunday, 21 December 2008 US MARKETS When, in the wake of the Bear Stearns collapse, ... derivatives market with the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, an opaque market, which ... destroying it. They were drawing out huge salaries, stock options, bonuses, golden parachutes, fees [more...]

Date: 2008-12-21 17:31:27

THE JOBS

Markets opens lower despite the pre market futures moving up on the "only 525K job losses" which beat the ADP number and the probable whisper level ... a short term bounce coming for day traders as it was straight down after the open- just don't expect much- Probably next weeks business.Madoff the movie;Market Sci BLOGtesting the TM trading rules;High [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 15:01:00

Asia Having a Decent Day, For a Change

After opening down (the Nikkei was down over 2.5%, the Hang Seng over 4%, Singapore over 1%) ... (relative to everything else) and is now $753 an ounce. Dow futures are up 242. The Treasury markets ... : Asian stocks and U.S. futures rose on speculation governments will step up efforts to revive economies [more...]

Date: 2008-11-21 07:49:52

Some Opening Comments for October 21 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities posted minuscule mixed changes in overseas trading ... edged two basis points higher to 4.28 percent.The 2 year/10 year spread widened to 216 basis points ... as well as in Spain. The futures markets indicate that the US market will open with very modest [more...]

Date: 2008-10-21 10:52:29

Opening Comments November 20 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have posted mixed results in overnight trading ... 3 percent or so thus far. Trading in the futures markets indicates that the US market will decline ... not see it cross the Mendoza line with trading sub 2.00 percent. The 10 year note continues [more...]

Date: 2008-11-20 12:32:33

WARNING! Horn Tooting: The Inman List of the Top 25 Most Influential Real Estate Bloggers for 2008 Is Out, and We're On It!

After what has been an absolutely whirlwind year of company growth, product development and business travel, ... ) Congratulations to all those selected! Broker and Agent BlogsKris Berg Founder, The San Diego Home Blog ... Real Estate Blog Joel Burslem Founder, Future of Real Estate Marketing Marketing and How [more...]

Date: 2008-11-01 01:41:07

The Coming Regulatory Revolution

As participants in the banking, futures, securities and insurance industries know, traditional US administrative procedure is cumbersome, ... . Nor will the CFTC assure that futures markets operate in an orderly fashion, letting the private National Futures Association do it alone. State banking and insurance regulators are out, a new [more...]

Date: 2008-07-10 14:14:06

Daily Report for Mon, Oct 27, 2008

The crisis in global equity, commodity and currency markets worsened overnight ... ) as an indicator. US equity futures have come off their earlier lows. ADDENDUM Links & Charts ... is sinking as are prices on the European bourses; the US equity markets may open with futures locked [more...]

Date: 2008-10-27 10:13:05

Some Opening Comments October 14 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have plummeted as the debt market responds to the actions of governments and regulators around the globe to ... this morning. European markets have gained about 5 percent thus far and futures market trading indicates ... on the 30 year bond has also jumped 14 basis points to 4.27 percent.The 2 year/10 year spread [more...]

Date: 2008-10-14 11:51:06

Some Opening Comments September 10 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have retreated in European trading reversing some of the outsized gains attained yesterday ... in Asia and are declining in Europe. Futures market trading ... the tone for fixed income market trading. Lehman Brothers stock declined 50 percent yesterday so it does [more...]

Date: 2008-09-10 11:06:18

links for 2009-01-03

Taleb vs Merton, Cont. - Felix Salmon The definitive account of the Fanniefredderung - The Curious CapitalistFDR and the New Deal: ... economic doctrines #1: efficient markets hypothesis — Crooked Timber Efficient markets and terrorism futures - Andrew Gelman In Obama’s Team, 2 Camps on Climate - NYTimes.com Who Saw The Housing Bubble [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 09:17:00

The gas legislation we pass

By Kate Sheppard The House of Representatives took up a triumvirate of environment and energy-related bills today, ... Futures Trading Commission to exert tougher oversight of the oil futures markets. In a 402-19 vote ... or unreasonable fluctuations" in energy futures prices and trading activities that "prevent [more...]

Date: 2008-06-27 00:13:20

Wall Street awaits jobs report

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street prepared Friday for a report expected to show another huge decline in jobs, ... stock futures were lower. Stock futures give an early indication of market sentiment and can signal how the market will open, although that sentiment was likely to change after the release [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 09:33:45

Intrade's Conditional Prediction Markets

We have often discussed the possible benefits of prediction markets for reducing bias ... study of real-money conditional futures markets. So how are they doing? Here is some data ... range consistent with current trading prices. (Peter provides continually-updated information [more...]

Date: 2008-07-29 23:14:54

November Jobs Report: Blecch

Egads The worst one-month loss in payrolls since December 1974 knocked stock futures back on their heels, ... the labor force for various reasons. Equity futures across the board are lower. The bond market’ ... as the Standard & Poor’s 500 futures dropped by as much as 21 points before recovering a bit [more...]

Date: 2008-12-05 16:41:00

Affiliate Summit West Live Blogging

Affiliate Summit West Live Blogging Gonna give this a try and see if the 3G connection enables me to blog some thoughts from the Affiliate Summit session on “the Future of Performance Marketing (Part 1). Session focused on “Performance Marketing” or CPA (cost per action) going forward. I hope it’s not all about subscription scams [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 22:10:19

McCain Aide Created 'Enron Loophole'

Editor's Note: On Wednesday evening, Keith Olbermann, the host of MSNBC's "Countdown," reported the findings of a "Countdown investigation" ... its proposed regulation of energy futures trading, a market that was famously abused when Enron ... into the Commodities Futures Modernization Act that exempted from regulation energy trading on electronic [more...]

Date: 2008-06-19 14:00:00

Alan Knowles, Haywood Securities: Finding that Elusive Bottom

Source: The Energy Report Haywood Senior Oil and Gas Analyst Alan Knowles says we haven’t seen a bottom yet, ... that are $45 today were $148 last summer, so while the futures indicate current market sentiment, they are not the best indicator of future prices. The contract that we’re talking about right [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 15:31:26

Kungfutrader.com Portfolio positions

Each week, we will update current positions indicated by our proprietary trend following system for the futures markets and our Ultimate Stock ... Trading System.  Positions as of Friday in the futures may be seen in the accompanying spreadsheet.  At this point in time, due to continued bearish conditions in the stock market, there are no ... [more...]

Date: 2009-01-13 01:47:55

About

I go by the moniker Complacent Panda. I discuss topics, largely, in the economics field, with some tangents into politics, art, philosophy, ... the skills necessary for trading in the stock market, the forex market, or on the options exchange ... for future interest in investments, and was in first place for total profits. While the .com bubble [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 00:02:00

01-05-09 KCBT Not Implementing Seasonal Storage Rates

Kansas City–January 5, 2009–The Kansas City Board of Trade has received numerous calls asking whether the exchange intends to implement seasonal ... per bushel per month. The Kansas City Board of Trade, founded in 1856, is the world’s largest futures market for hard red winter wheat. Daily quotes, market commentary, historical data and charting [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 21:36:07

Weekend Freestuff

Free, gratis and fornothing, here we are again with the perfect solution to "Awwww...ahm bored an' ah got nothing ta read" ... . Get yours today.Click this link to apply for your free subscription to Futures Magazine(and I hope ... once you've gained the timely market insight that Futures Magazine magazine provides. Each issue [more...]

Date: 2009-01-04 14:19:00

thinking like an analyst

Randomly surfing news channels yesterday, I saw an economic analyst from a leading investment bank talk about his thoughts on surging oil ... to play the oil futures market, or are just care about when the price of your daily commute is going to come down, there's a specialist who provides this data, for a fee. Posted by Ed Cotton Tags [more...]

Date: 2008-06-11 16:03:04

Oil Squeeze? Blame Yourself

The Journal’s Russell Gold reports: When it comes to the price of crude oil and gasoline, who is in the driver’s seat? One common answer is no one ... into the commodity futures market. All of this plays a role: the availability of supply, financial market interest in commodities, and don’t forget the strength of the U.S. dollar (the global [more...]

Date: 2008-09-03 18:43:00

Black Monday? Global Investors vote “No” on Paulson’s Bailout

Dandelion Salad By Mike Whitney 09/29/08 “ICH” The wrangling continued on the floor of the House of Representatives all weekend, ... to stop the bleeding. Before the stock market opened on Monday, the futures markets had slumped [more...]

Date: 2008-09-29 22:13:47

Happy Whatever

Happy whatever-you-celebrate. I spent some time with my family doing the Christmas thing, which was good since I hadn’t seen them in a year ... there is an entire rural economy, including credit and futures markets, tied to the opium trade ... been trying to argue for well over a year: “arming the tribes” is a really really bad idea. He also quotes MP [more...]

Date: 2008-12-27 17:57:33

It’s Those Damn Atheists Again

JEFFREY Frankel announced a few months back: “They say there are no atheists in foxholes ... have failed; investors no longer fund them and are not likely to in the future.”… “In a market system ... scrutinized phenomenon: the spectacular boom and calamitous bust in derivatives trading…. “It seems [more...]

Date: 2008-10-12 06:06:29

Some Opening Comments October 8 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are surging as the turmoil in the world financial markets deepens and resists the best laid plans of ... . European markets are down between 4 percent and 6 percent. Trading in equity futures indicates that the US markets will tumble sharply at the outset if trading were to begin now. The UK government crafted [more...]

Date: 2008-10-08 11:12:20

a wise man spoke…

Back in the long gone days of Summer 2008, our gas prices were in the $4.00 range. Congress was looking in to the price of oil and why it had risen ... futures market, in which investors buy and sell promises to deliver oil at a later date, and claimed ... commodity futures — “is almost equal to the increase in demand from China.” Many economists scoffed [more...]

Date: 2008-12-24 04:13:22

Safe Harbor for Prediction Markets?

As everyone who has read The Wisdom of the Crowds knows, prediction markets are excellent predictors of future events like elections ... Professor John McGinnis reports, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is recognizing the benefits ... , exempting them from cumbersome financial trading laws. As McGinnis argues, creating such an exception would [more...]

Date: 2008-07-11 19:29:49

Coal: Don’t Believe What They Tell You on TV

Let’s get one thing straight: Coal is not cheap. And since coal power plants generate half of America’s electricity, that’s not good news ... utility bill this winter heating season. So much for all that much-hyped propaganda from “clean coal” ... Appalachian Coal Futures market has doubled from $60 in January to about $120 in early September [more...]

Date: 2008-09-08 21:13:23

Recession adds uncertainty to 2009 farmland leases

No business partnership seems unaffected by the recession, including one of agriculture’s most common, said Craig Dobbins, ... .     “In September if you used the futures market to give you an idea of what prices might ... , soybeans and wheat had dropped that margin to about $200 an acre.”     Prices are still falling, lowering [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 13:19:08

What’s Investing All About?

Forex trading strategy is also quite different from futures market investing and desired results - other than making money of course - are different ... of stock market investing. Through entertaining anecdotes and practical pearls of wisdom, the book ... . Online stock trading is without a doubt, one of most convenient ways to get into the stock [more...]

Date: 2008-12-25 06:02:28

Speculation and Commodity Prices

Ah, good - I've been meaning to do something like this myself, but never got around to it ... is that commodities that feature no futures markets have experienced as much volatility as those that have them ... is present in commodities markets: Commodity Prices, Again: Are Speculators to Blame, by Jeff Frankel [more...]

Date: 2008-07-25 18:07:00

1 - 50 of 555 Posts
Page: First | < Preceding | Next >
0 | 1 | 2