the probable future : Keeping things simple in your trading (blog)

Keeping things simple in your trading

Beanieville posted Don’t Let All Those Technical Analysis Gurus Confuse You on Tuesday with the primary suggestion being that one should keep things ... : “If you’ve been to some options or futures trading sites most of you probably feel like you don’ ... part - what prices are doing. Now, having said that, the idea that options and futures traders [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 12:59:49

Blog posts (30) | Videos (1)

Review Of E*Trade Bank High Interest Savings and Checking Accounts

When most people think of ETrade, the popular online discount brokerage firm with the cutesy talking baby commercials probably comes to mind ... for future brand name recognition. Since its days as a leader in the do-it-yourself stock investing ... a low cost discount broker, the company has jumped into the online banking business. Hoping [more...]

Date: 2008-12-27 08:39:38

ClimatePULSE: Corporations, Prepare for the Best

Most reasonable scenarios of the future suggest that expected increases in population and economic growth will outweigh the ... seriously. Under many probable futures for the North American carbon markets, including cap [more...]

Date: 2008-09-10 18:34:13

Do trade rumors make you nervous? Trade rumors make ME nervous.

photo by Samara Pearlstein So many trade rumors are flying around right now, ... and his big shiny hair, make him a relatively rare commodity in the Tigers organization: a player ... has been declared the third baseman of Christmases Past, Present, AND Future, we're probably going [more...]

Date: 2008-10-29 04:06:22

Economist Interest Rate Predictions

There are 3 things you need to know about Economist Predictions:1. Their short term predictions are generally lousy ... , some expect 25 basis point cut, even when futures markets were pricing in nearly 100% probability ... expect the bond yields to steadily increase over the same period.My own opinion is that in the long [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 05:59:00

South Africa reaps bumper maize crop for 2007/08

by Muchena Zigomo South Africa's 2007/08 season maize crop soared almost 80 percent to 12 ... that we've gone higher than most people expected will probably see (maize futures prices) coming down a bit ... to silos, which were at 11.25 million tonnes on Wednesday according to the South African Grain [more...]

Date: 2008-12-09 10:52:00

There’s just no play

I somewhat wanted go short yesterday afternoon but I couldn’t get myself to do it because I was travelling today ... to front-run the news on either side. I am just going to sit out and watch. I don’t trade futures ... will be bought hard and I’ll probably look for another long bond short entry via TBT. Given [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 01:44:18

Some rumblings on next FOMC Meeting Tuesday, 16 Dec 2008

Sometimes, it takes a while before "the obvious" becomes "obvious" and stares at you right in the face.I don't know why I didn't see this earlier ... fund futures are now pricing in a 98 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates ... today, the same Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in 100% probability of a 75bp cut [more...]

Date: 2008-12-11 16:53:00

The Fed's rate at zero? It's no longer a far-fetched idea

Just a day after the Federal Reserve dropped its key short-term interest rate to 1% -- matching the generational low reached in 2003-04 -- the betting is intensifying on another cut. Trading in futures contracts on the federal funds rate ... , the probability of a cut to 0.50% was 32%. Fedfundschartoct29 At a minimum, the futures market expects [more...]

Date: 2008-10-30 22:41:54

DON'T WORRY, DON'T WORRY

Wonkette can calm down. Yes, the Intrade futures contract is showing a better than 50% probability of an economic depression in 2009. But it's only because the rules for settling the contract contain a silly error. They define ... consecutive quarters then the contract will expire at 100. Expiry will be based on official [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 16:04:24

Kashmir at root of India Pakistan conflict

Date: 2008-12-07 23:16:15

new rule: if it’s too good to be true, it probably isnt!…

Recently, I was talking about the future of the blogs, and mentioning emptywheel’s facility at document analysis ... to eriposte at the left coaster, Econo Fraud 101, and felt like I needed to go no further. He quotes [more...]

Date: 2008-12-14 18:25:12

Thoughts on Banking: An Example

My earlier post left people confused. Let me give an example to clarify my model of financial intermediation with no information asymmetries ... , the expected future value of the equity is $5.44 million. Its present value is $4.0 million, because ... the probability of success gets revised down from 0.6 to 0.3, the future value of the equity becomes [more...]

Date: 2008-10-21 23:01:21

Treasuries and Gold Rise as Global Credit Freeze Prompts More Bailouts

In a sea of red, government bonds and are gold both rising as the world's banking system cracks under the weight of the biggest debt expansion in ... rates. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 60 percent probability the Fed will slash [more...]

Date: 2008-10-06 11:58:00

Trend Indicator

Why are some traders more successful than others? There are probably as many answers as there are traders out there ... as options and futures are concerned. In options trading your biggest enemy by far is time ... on the long run.The same rule applies to any short-term oriented trader. The Global Futures Trend Index [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 23:04:00

Guesstimates on January 6, 2009

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market is approaching the 945 short term target. Support is at 912 ... will probably continue upward to 55.00 but I expect a drop to 30-35 to follow. GLD - February Gold [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 13:39:00

THE JOBS

Markets opens lower despite the pre market futures moving up on the "only 525K job losses" which beat the ADP number and the probable whisper level ... a short term bounce coming for day traders as it was straight down after the open- just don't expect much- Probably next weeks business.Madoff the movie;Market Sci BLOGtesting the TM trading rules;High [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 15:01:00

An Organic Bubble? Will Hard Times Make Us More Level-Headed?

Will hard times make us more realistic? As individuals, possibly, in some respects. As a directed society, no ... , it will resort to (other forms of) compulsion (like forced labour which I predict to have a great future, soon ... Smith Institute seem to be "dead".) Has the bottom dropped out of the organic market? Probably. Alex [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 22:24:03

Tumblr Gets More Money (to Burn?)

The economy is still looking grim. Not making any money and not having an identifiable business model should probably mean you’ll have ... ) pretty much ceased to exist as a category. The competition is fierce, the future is unsure, and even ... Desperate Brokers are the New Lolcats A First Look at Tumblr 3.0 Streem: A Better Tumblr? [more...]

Date: 2008-12-11 12:27:37

Your Take: Trust A Financial Planner With Bad Finances?

A few years ago I met with a financial planner who was probably the same age, or a few years older, as me. We chatted a little, discussed some of my future plans, and basically he tried to sell ... t really have future plans. I had just graduated college, started getting my first few paychecks [more...]

Date: 2008-09-19 11:11:49

McCain was for the Enron loophole before he was against it

The McCain campaign is pushing back hard against Barack Obama's proposal to close the so-called "Enron loophole," ... prices. The loophole permits unregulated energy futures trading in electronic markets and is likely ... , health, and education departments. Given the omnibus nature of the legislation, I probably wouldn't [more...]

Date: 2008-06-23 21:58:53

If Mary Schapiro’s the answer. . .

...it was probably a stupid question ... . Schapiro took the NASD-R’s money after putting in 15 months as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; before that she was, from 1988-1993, a member of the US Securities and Exchange [more...]

Date: 2008-12-18 05:27:02

The SEC, Madoff and XBRL

You probably have never heard of XBRL. If you havent, and you are the least bit interested in how regulatory agencies can avoid future Madoff ... , to hedge funds, to mutual funds, to ETFs, brokers, dealers, market makers,to banks and each and every loan [more...]

Date: 2008-12-16 07:10:54

Forget About Mike Leach to the Vols or Huskies. Is There an NFL Job in His Immediate Future?

The following NFL teams are likely to either have a head coaching opening or an offensive coordinator position to fill after this season: Cleveland, Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Oakland, Detroit, and maybe though probably not, the Jets and Eagles. What are the chances that college football’s hottest coaching commodity, Mike [more...]

Date: 2008-11-12 17:30:59

Is it Easy to Make Money From the Forex Capital Markets?

You probably won’t find many investors claiming that any investment opportunity is easy, ... that are structuring the other sorts of investments out there, be it equity, futures and stocks trading ... , opening up an account and start building your portfolio right away. Pairing a 24 hour investment [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 05:30:43

Stack of Lame Gift Cards after Christmas? Trade and Sell ‘em on the Internet

Christmas has come and gone. You probably already used up all your good gift cards to take advantage of post-Christmas sales ... have the option of throwing your undesired Chili’s gift cards up on eBay too. But again, you’ll lose ... BestBuy gift card futures as we speak. If you’re looking for a more secure investment than gift [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 18:20:52

How To Make A Killing In The Forex Capital Markets

You probably won't find many investors claiming that any investment opportunity is easy, even for the Forex capital markets which are ruled by the same rules and regulations that are structuring the other sorts of investments out there, be it equity, futures and stocks trading [more...]

Date: 2009-01-04 17:47:54

Roman Mustard Makers

vintage postcards The Romans probably developed the prepared mustards we know today. They mixed unfermented grape juice, known as 'must' with ground mustard seeds (called sinapis) to make "burning must", mustum ardens—hence "must ard". Enjoy this quirky post? Get future vintage [more...]

Date: 2009-01-13 02:20:00

SPI Daily 9th January 2009 recap

"There is no probability pattern today, as price looks to be moving into a weekly 5-day sideways pattern, ... Report out tomorrow.Daily Trading Set-ups & AnalysisIndex Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & ForexSubscribe to the Trader Premiumhttp://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 05:48:00

Five Thoughts To My Future Children…

I got the latest edition of Money Magazine yesterday, ... s a fine start. Your Time - It’s the most valuable commodity you have. Right now, you probably view [more...]

Date: 2008-11-13 16:25:10

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