Green Ink: Oil Tanks and Science Celebrates

paper Expiring January crude oil futures nosedived Friday while February futures contracts hovered around $42, Bloomberg reports, ... oil majors drooling over Turkmenistan’s huge natural gas field can forget about it, reports the WSJ [more...]

Date: 2008-12-19 13:00:23

Blog posts (36) | Videos (6)
 

Samuelson on Why We Should (Not) Shoot the Speculators

Who are these offensive souls? Well, they often don’t fit the stereotype of sleazy high rollers: ... and producers of commodities to hedge. Airlines can lock in fuel prices by buying oil futures; farmers can lock ... generally don’t buy the physical goods, whether oil or corn. Instead, they trade “futures contracts,” [more...]

Date: 2008-07-01 15:26:38

Permanent Link to 365. Speculation in crude oil futures markets

365. Speculation in crude oil futures markets When George Bush was inaugurated on January 20, 2001 the NYMEX near futures crude oil contract was $32.19/bbl (see also item 308). On September 10 ... weeks, due to international cooperation and support, the futures price actually fell hitting a low [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 08:57:43

Above the fold

A DAILY round-up of economic news: The bailout saga continues to turn ... for oil yesterday. Traders buying October oil futures to cover earlier sales of the contract briefly ... by resurgent commodities prices and a tangled global financial situation. [more...]

Date: 2008-09-23 14:18:14

Paul Krugman Critiques Guillermo Calvo on Commodity Prices

The fact that somebody has bought an oil futures contract means that somebody else has sold one--hence no effect on demand without real storage ... , as far as I can tell, online. Why isn’t Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv on JSTOR?). Speculation can affect ... institutions that buy commodity futures as an investment — are responsible for the price surge. The [more...]

Date: 2008-06-22 15:35:07

Commodities Markets Expected to Stabilize in 2009

Monday, December 29, 2008 Commodities may face lingering economic pressures; ... , particularly for those who had invested in oil, futures contracts were their undoing.At the start of 2009 ... demand and they need present demand," said Matt Zeman, head trader at LaSalle Futures in Chicago. "Until [more...]

Date: 2008-12-30 02:50:00

Despite recent price rise, traders seeking tankers is bearish for oil

Filed under: International markets, Commodities, OilThose investors ready to position themselves in oil stocks, or perhaps even dabble in oil futures, may want to wait a while. Oil traders are seeking ... ." Dietz added that he was currently short unleaded gasoline, with a monthly contract. Continue reading [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 18:45:00

'60 Minutes': Did speculation fuel oil price?

There was an excellent item last night on 60 Minutes about the role speculators played in the oil price spike this summer ... problem was a result of the commodities markets being "invaded by a new breed of investor." "Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the oil contracts in the futures markets are now held by speculative [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 06:26:00

The Petro-Manipulators

The Petro-Manipulators Anyone who lived on the West Coast during the phony energy crisis of 2000 and 2001 cannot help thinking of Texas and two of ... used to tread. Big investors are free to run up oil futures contracts thanks in part to former Senator [more...]

Date: 2008-06-25 22:43:51

Selling decimates the markets; gold rallies, T-bill rates dive

Calamity rules in markets today after the House, in a shocker, voted down the financial-system bailout bill ... demand to dry up if the global economy contracts sharply. Crude oil futures are down $9.26 to $97.63 a barrel. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 commodities is down 5%. The only major commodity [more...]

Date: 2008-09-29 19:36:55

CFTC Report on High Oil Prices - "Speculation My A$$"

With a pending Senate vote on the "Stop Excessive Energy Speculation Act", it seems that we (not the TOD 'we', but the collective society 'we') ... . In this report, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), threw cold water on the recent ... , activity on the crude oil futures market – as measured by the number of contracts outstanding, trading [more...]

Date: 2008-07-23 14:47:59

OPEC's Actions Irrelevant for Now

By Markos N. Kaminis - Economy & Markets:Visit the front pages of Wall Street Greek and Market Moving News to see our current coverage of economic ... $40.50 on the WTI futures contract for January deliver, the price of crude oil at the hour ... a relatively significant action from the consortium, but as crude oil prices moved curiously counter [more...]

Date: 2008-12-17 21:45:00

Commodities markets expected to stabilize in 2009

Commodities markets expected to stabilize in 2009 http://www.washingtonpost.com – NEW YORK -- During the first six months of 2008, commodities looked to be the savior ... who had invested in oil, futures contracts were their undoing. [more...]

Date: 2008-12-29 23:10:48

Oil Prices Fell to Close to $US40 as Gold Price Rises

Oil prices fell to close to $US40 on Friday after a highly volatile trading week as new US data showed rising unemployment and deepening recession in the world’s biggest oil consuming nation. The benchmark contract, light sweet crude ... futures added 0.0805 cents to $US1.5595 a pound. [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 01:09:58

Deal Or No Deal...The Buck Is A Bust

Oil Curve Steeper Than '99 Shows Possible Gain in '09Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide.The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange suggests oil will rise 28 percent to $60 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 01:28:00

Crude Oil Industry Headline News

"Crude Oil Up But Seesaws On Gaza, Russia, Dollar"U.S ... forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New York....Complete Story"Iran Says OPEC to Hold ... . crude oil futures edged upbut trading seesawed on Monday as a stronger dollar brought prices down [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 16:14:00

Obama Hates Oil Speculators, Hearts Ethanol

Bloomberg reports that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is proposing new rules to increase government interven... err... oversight in energy markets. He wants to "require the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate trading in energy futures contracts and direct the commission to investigate ways [more...]

Date: 2008-06-23 16:04:51

Watching Oil

I am taking a look at oil here.  The front month contract has fallen from $147 in July – remember then? – to $33 Friday ... me that this move is far more than any “deflationary” end-of-the-world trade. The contango in the futures ... .  I had been bullish on commodities for much of this decade until markets got really stupid earlier [more...]

Date: 2008-12-22 14:00:56

Crude reclaims $50 amid OPEC output cuts, Gaza fighting

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures rose Tuesday for a fourth straight session, ... , the contract hit an intraday high of $50.47 a barrel. The benchmark contract has gained more than $10, or 25 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 15:25:17

Corn v. Crude

Why are corn and oil prices rising in tandem? I've become a bit obsessive about oil prices -- I check them online several times each day, just out of habit. But most other commodities remain something of a mystery to me. I keep ... from the phenomenally helpful futuresource.com, comparing the rise in recent futures contracts for corn [more...]

Date: 2008-07-15 22:42:50

Kevin Duffy on the dreaded "speculator"

Ah, the dreaded “speculator,” the perennial whipping boy of anti-capitalists. What is so evil about the speculator? ... where your mouth is - buy a futures contract.” And I reminded them I was doing the same, taking ... and bid up inflation hedges - not just crude oil, but grains, precious metals, and other commodities [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 05:40:00

News will not make you money

Just saw this on Bloomberg this evening - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a1Ab6lUay5TE&refer=newsJan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide. The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 13:37:00

Wall St. Extends Holiday Rally - Washington Post

Wall St. Extends Holiday Rally Washington Post, United States - 18 minutes ago Amid signs of slowing demand by industrial users, natural gas futures contracts fell 5.4 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while crude oil for ... [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 08:41:51

Oil, Another 'Trouble in Middle East' Bounce

A bounce to $50 and even $55 isn't excessive. Prices are now above the declining 20 day EMA (blue line) and should gravitate to the 50 day EMA ( ... for a rally this year, if history is any guide.The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded ... cut, raised the price of all the crude types it exports to the U.S.”Another way to play commodities [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 13:30:00

Oil Prices Mixed As Market Focuses On Soft Demand

NEW YORK: Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday as market concerns about soft demand eclipsed supply concerns amid rising geopolitical tensions in the ... due to deepening geopolitical frictions, analysts said. The New York futures contract hit an intra ... of an economic recovery in 2009, hedge funds back on commodities and finally cold temperatures,” said [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 03:30:26

Oil Ready For Another Big Bull Run?

Bolling: Oil Should Be in the $70-$85 Range, Buy the DipsPosted Jan 07, 2009 11:53am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, CommoditiesRelated: USO, DUG, ... futures contracts expire each month.Bolling said he will add to the USO position if/when spot crude falls ... from the different brokerage houses areall over the place. The parameters they are looking at [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 21:15:00

Alan Knowles, Haywood Securities: Finding that Elusive Bottom

Source: The Energy Report Haywood Senior Oil and Gas Analyst Alan Knowles says we haven’t seen a bottom yet, ... that are $45 today were $148 last summer, so while the futures indicate current market sentiment, they are not the best indicator of future prices. The contract that we’re talking about right [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 15:31:26

Why Are Oil and Natural Gas Prices Behaving so Similarly?

This is a question that has been bugging me for a while ... is used for heat, the price of gas is very seasonal. Here is a graph of the gas futures curve (from Nymex, December 23, 2008):Now you can see here that futures contracts for winter months are higher than [more...]

Date: 2008-12-26 19:10:00

Oil prices mixed on bleak economic outlook

Oil prices were mixed in Asian trade on Monday on continuing worries about the weak global economy, analysts said. New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, was down 27 cents to 40.56 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent North Sea crude for February [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 06:48:19

Crude Oil Rises After Israeli Attacks

Crude oil rose a second day in New York after Israeli air strikes in the Gaza strip killed more than 285 people, ... commodities as a haven. Oil gained as much as 3.9 percent as Israel called up reservists after two days ... , to $39.70 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract gained 4.8 percent [more...]

Date: 2008-12-29 02:15:00

Oil prices end tumultuous year on calm note, down slightly

Oil prices ended the year on a calm note on Wednesday, ... -year lows. New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, eased 13 ... torrid few months, a hell of a lot of uncertainty,” said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst for ANZ [more...]

Date: 2008-12-31 06:48:11

DrumBeat: September 26, 2008

Oil: Contract killing “SPECULATORS are back and prices are up,” moaned James May, the head of the Air Transport Association, ... . The Democrats have vowed to pass a law crimping speculation. The Commodity Futures Trading [more...]

Date: 2008-09-26 13:15:07

Sweet crude at $42/barrel

AP: Sweet crude for February delivery tumbled 12 percent, or $5.95, to settle at $42 ... he's seen in a while. ... The crude futures market is now in what oil traders call a "contango" -- in which ... delivery was trading at $49.34, about $5 cheaper than the February contract. "A steep contango [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 00:34:17

More speculation about those oil speculators

I normally leave it to folks like Dean Baker to beat up on the press ... their businesses. But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol's books last month ... in oil and a number of other commodity markets. The CFTC separates the holders of those contracts [more...]

Date: 2008-08-22 04:02:06

Oil Rises to 5-Week High Above $50 on OPEC Cuts, Russia Dispute

By Grant Smith Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil rose to a five-week high above $50 as Kuwait and Qatar indicated they will implement supply cuts ... percent, to $51.86 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange, also the highest since Dec. 1. The contract traded at $51.37 a barrel at 1:23 p.m. “Russia continues to play hardball [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 13:49:59

When You Are Wrong It's Best Just To Take Your Medicine

Well, when I am wrong, I am usually way wrong. So, gloat away: A quiet data revision that has boosted by nearly 25% the number of oil futures contracts ... oil futures and options as of July 15—compared with just over 38% under the previous classification [more...]

Date: 2008-08-08 10:32:50

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