Overlooked Economic News

Overlooked Economic News By Catherine Rampell In the midst of anxiety over the stock market’s plunge, ... prices are way, way down. (As always, check out GasBuddy.com for historical gasoline prices.) Low ... (though dropping) commodity prices. At Vox EU, the economists Juan Delgado and Indhira Santos argue [more...]

Date: 2008-10-10 21:39:04

Blog posts (114) | Videos (13)
 

Economy: Syria Avoids Recession

[ Syrian chef Ahmad Zeidan prepares gourmet Aleppine dishes at the Mirage hotel in the historic city of Aleppo October 21, 2007 ... businessmen money and headache. The terrible run up in commodity prices that threatened to force ... of commodity prices has a down side, however. Oil price declines will hit Syria’s government budget hard [more...]

Date: 2008-12-13 21:58:42

TREASURY BUBBLE UPDATE -- 1/7/09

"The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace. … But then finally the masses wake up ... , you know that long-term Treasuries had a stellar year in 2008 -- their prices hitting historical highs ... commodity or index. ETFs trade just like regular stocks, so they're easy to buy and sell [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 17:18:00

The Complement Cooperative

Well, that was a lot of money chasing nothing. It's not as if we're lacking in problems needing solutions--climate change, energy scarcity, almost every meaningful commodity priced at historical highs. A vast pool of money, and a growing list [more...]

Date: 2008-09-24 01:55:47

SoCal heating gas costs at 2-year low

The global market meltdown has this financial benefit: Tumbling energy prices mean that residential natural gas users handled by SoCal’s Gas Go ... of consumers’ November bills to commodity-market prices equal to 45.6 cents per therm, an industry ... losses from hurricanes have helped natural gas prices to decline from historical peak prices in July [more...]

Date: 2008-11-19 08:01:43

The Budget and Economic Outlook : Fiscal Years 2009 to 2019

Congressional Budget Officehttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9957/01-07-Outlook ... although lower commodity prices will ease those effects somewhat.A financial system that remains strained ... from a historical perspective.A slow recovery in 2010, with real GDP growing by only 1.5 percent.An [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 16:33:35

How Will Deflation Worries Affect Gold?

Gold has historically been an asset that people turned to when they are worried about inflation. Today, though, we are in a very unique situation ... all, prices for just about every other commodity, from oil to nickel to cotton, have plunged [more...]

Date: 2008-12-22 18:48:33

History Suggests Gordon Will Not Survive This Recession

The major 5 UK recessions of the 20th Century were 1920-21, 1929-33, 1973-75, 79-82 & 1989-1991 ... and rocketing commodity prices. This caused queues at petrol stations, rolling cutbacks in electricity ... . The first chart below shows the historical data for GDP output from 1970 to the 3rdQ 2008 [more...]

Date: 2008-12-17 01:12:20

Lottery System Development

I've been working on a lottery system based on intuition rather than the more common strategy of analaysing patterns or distributions in historical ... out by 2,3,4,...49 (use the modulus operator when the number goes above 49).From the world of trading ... can be used to forecast future price levels in many products, ranging from currencies to commodities [more...]

Date: 2009-01-11 11:34:00

EUROPE IN RAPID DECLINE ON WORLD STAGE

January 6, 2009 Steve Collins   Many Christians have expected that Europe would be the region from which a “beast” power or “anti-Christ” ruler will emerge. One should always keep an open mind to all possibilities as we progress deeper into the end times, but on-going events are revealing Europe to be a continent in rapid decline [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 07:44:40

How will the current retail environment affect green industry sales in the spring?

Quick overview of some of yesterday's December retail data (no real surprises):Wal-Mart cut fiscal Q4 earnings target about 10% ... " with vendors in the first half of the year as grocers push for lower prices to help shoppers through ... Wednesday.With commodity and ingredient costs falling sharply in recent months, supermarket [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 15:01:00

Obama Rally, Worldwide Bailouts, Buy Gold Stocks, $40 Oil, and More!

by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias Stocks of the world rise… has the “Obama Rally” finally arrived? Capitol Hill breaks out the checkbook… bailout bills for automakers, public works in the making India, South Korea and China mull stimulus too… Rob Parenteau on the implications A historic chart reveals “chance of a lifetime” for this [more...]

Date: 2008-12-08 20:32:57

Recession? Depression? How Deep, How Far and What Can Be Done?

By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted October 11, 2008. A survey of what some of the best thinkers believe we’re facing in the coming months and years — and the best ways to prevent complete disaster. As the financial crisis gains steam, moving from overextended American households to global banking giants, fear of a major crash is spreading [more...]

Date: 2008-10-12 14:39:21

Toto, this certainly isn’t Kansas anymore?!

Jeff Saut has been disciple of the markets for more than 30 years. He is well known for his insightful and colorful stock market commentary when appearing on various shows on PBS, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, NPR, as well as local radio and TV networks. He is often quoted in publications such as The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Barron’s, [more...]

Date: 2008-11-20 13:00:15

Bush Legacy: Shock, Awe & Atrophy

Publisher’s Note: This is the first of a series of analysis of the Bush administration that will be published here over the holidays. Watch for other commentary from HPI’s Mark Schoeff Jr., Jack Colwell, Peter J. Rusthoven, Kevin Kellems, Sheila Kennedy and Dave Kitchell in the coming days as we present our first draft of history of President [more...]

Date: 2008-12-23 14:15:54

DrumBeat: December 13, 2008

Greed, hatred, warfare and the race for fossil fuels NEITHER an optimistic nor a pessimistic prophet on energy, the author of " ... . Although Peter Tertzakian does not mean it, his vivid historical account of mankind's thirst for energy ... thirst for energy just to live better and, sometimes, to wage wars. break Falling oil prices taking [more...]

Date: 2008-12-13 14:32:05

Munger on Middlemen

Mike Munger of Duke University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the often-vilified middleman--someone who buys cheap, sells dear and does nothing to improve the product. Munger explains the economic function of arbitrage using a classic article about how prices emerged in a POW camp during World War II [more...]

Date: 2008-10-27 12:39:55

Why We Should Be Seriously Contemplating The Great Depression

Revelation 6:6 - “And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.” There are plenty of financial experts out there assuring us that any comparison between our current economic situation and the Great Depression are utterly [more...]

Date: 2008-12-03 16:30:12

International Forecaster January 2009 (#1) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman Sunday, 4 January 2009 US MARKETS … A re-inflation is on its way. You can just see it coming. Nuts of taxpayer largesse are being stuffed into baggy little banker cheeks via TARP, to be hoarded until the Fed gives the word. An explosive Fed balance sheet, rampant monetization of treasuries, [more...]

Date: 2009-01-04 17:40:51

Media Release: Constellation Selling its Value Spirits Brands for $334 Million

·         Increases focus on higher-margin mid-premium spirits brands·         Leverages existing infrastructure to improve efficiencies·         Will reduce borrowings using net cash proceeds·         Updates fiscal 2009 reported basis diluted EPS guidance FAIRPORT, N.Y., Jan. 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Constellation Brands, Inc [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 15:19:54

Get Out Now!

Get Out Now! By Andrew Bary, Barron's | 9 January 2009The bubble in Treasuries looks ready to pop, sending prices on government debt sharply lower. But just about every other corner of the bond market beckons— and could provide competitive returns with stocks, even if the equity markets have a strong 2009 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 16:52:00

Top Five Causes of the Financial Crisis

1.  Alternative Realities:  The Black-Scholes Revolution Hatched by two Berkeley finance professors, the Black-Scholes model of pricing options securities took hold in the financial industry in the 1980s.  It was known as “Portfolio Insurance” because it purported to free traders of all market risk, at least theoretically [more...]

Date: 2009-01-11 00:43:12

Japan's Variations on ZIRP; ¥ Intervention Ahead?

We seem to be entering a time when the official policy rates of major industrialized nations are converging on a range. That range is between zero and one percent. By historical standards, these levels are undoubtedly ... the declines in the prices of petroleum products and the stabilization of food prices. Looking [more...]

Date: 2008-12-19 08:22:00

Chesapeake's Cutback of Natural Gas Expenditures

Note: This is an updated version of a post from earlier this week. Some more recent quotes have been added at the end of this post ... cost of producing- to currently above the price of natural gas futures. While shutting ... At $100 Oil, What Can the Scientist Say to the Investor? The Energy Return on Time Peak Oil - Why [more...]

Date: 2008-09-23 20:12:34

Deal Or No Deal...The Buck Is A Bust

Oil Curve Steeper Than '99 Shows Possible Gain in '09Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide.The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange suggests oil will rise 28 percent to $60 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 01:28:00

One Upside To The Economic Crisis: Cheap Gas

As the US dollar crashes and the financial markets around the world start to implode, we may see an happy side effect: cheap gas ... prices to several other measures, and concluded that crude oil is the most overpriced commodity ... higher than any other commodity. Relative to per capita income, oil prices would have to fall [more...]

Date: 2008-10-13 19:55:40

Following the Market Dive

Following the Market Dive By Mike Nizza The Closing Bell, 4:05 p.m. To end the day, an A.P ... from Canada. The Toronto Stock Exchange index, which is heavily weighted with energy and commodity ... prices for investors. Polls, however, indicated that his perspective was not shared by many voters [more...]

Date: 2008-10-10 14:16:38

Free Market Money

At Samizdata in a thread about the Lakota Bank, commenter llamas says the following, about gold and silver: ... commodity. They are not somehow magically ordained to be ‘real’ money…they are just as easy ... , isn’t it possible (probable!) that the money prices to which he refers are indicative of inflation [more...]

Date: 2008-12-04 04:42:31

Invest on Stocks or Property?

It’s a very strange economic climate at the moment with stocks at very low levels, property prices well off their peaks, oil prices down, and commodity prices down as well. So if you were looking to invest your money somewhere, which ... account automatically. The major drawback with share investing is that you have to pick quality [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 13:34:31

2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP

I meant to take yet another Friday away from my writing, but as I am researching for next week’s annual prediction issue, there is so much material that begs to be covered that I thought I would put out a short letter with 3 or 4 points as a preface to my prognostications of next week [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 12:42:15

01-09-09 *R-Calf USA OpEd* CEO Informs Federal Agencies Market, Trade Policies Have Failed the U.S. Cattle Industry

Washington, D.C. – R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard met with officials from the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the President-Elect Transition Team for the U.S. Department of Commerce, and with House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson this week to discuss the need for immediate policy reforms to restore the viability of, [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 01:49:46

When Argentina Calls Us a Banana Republic

By John Galt December 16, 2008 Prevailing wisdom on the morning of December 16, 2008 was that I would wake up, watch Bubblevision, drive to Vero Beach, FL, visit my accounts and today would be a non-eventful sort of financial market kind of day. The Federal Reserve was supposed to mark the Fed Funds Rate down to 0 [more...]

Date: 2008-12-17 04:13:55

Some rumblings on next FOMC Meeting Tuesday, 16 Dec 2008

Sometimes, it takes a while before "the obvious" becomes "obvious" and stares at you right in the face.I don't know why I didn't see this earlier ... fund futures are now pricing in a 98 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates ... today, the same Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in 100% probability of a 75bp cut [more...]

Date: 2008-12-11 16:53:00

DrumBeat: October 21, 2008

As Oil Prices Drop, OPEC Ponders Tough Solutions At the beginning of the year, OPEC producers felt confident that strong economic growth and tight supplies would keep oil prices high. When oil crossed the $100-a-barrel threshold in February, the cartel’s president blamed speculators and said there was not much OPEC could do [more...]

Date: 2008-10-21 13:15:19

Monetary Policy: Monetary Policy Slamming on Breaks. What do you do when banks don’t want to lend? Become the consumer. Government getting ready to spend to stimulate the economy.

Monetary policy is a delicate game of cat and mouse.  You raise rates, you lower rates, or you jawbone a little and normally, the markets respond to the Fed like a conditioned hamster looking for a piece of food.  Yet the Fed has lost this power.  What happens when the public gets a look behind the curtain and realizes there never was any sort of [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 08:02:42

20 November SWJ Roundup

At the request of the small group of think-tankers I was travelling with, General David McKiernan's headquarters has agreed to release an unclassified version of the ISAF Campaign plan specifically for posting on Small Wars Journal. Things I find particularly interesting in this plan include the upfront acknowledgement that this is a [more...]

Date: 2008-11-20 02:24:18

New Zealand’s leading public intellectual of the Left, Chris Trotter, seems to have been genuinely unsettled by the defeat of Labour in 2008. Toys have been thrown, and targets targeted.  In an initial attack of post-election spleen Chris railed against those voters who brought in National as ” . . [more...]

Date: 2009-01-04 07:01:29

The IMF's Outlook

From Chapter 1 of the IMF World Economic Outlook, released today: ... . In this context, elevated rates of headline inflation should recede quickly, provided oil prices stay at or below ... below trend, although some still face significant inflation pressure even with more stable commodity [more...]

Date: 2008-10-08 17:07:51

Roubini's Latest "Why Things Are Hopeless" List Hits New Record, 20 Items!

I have not made a formal tally of Roubini's various lists of why the economy is going (and will continue to go) to hell in a handbasket, but recent sightings suggest his typical list is eight to twelve reasons. However, in his latest missive, on the subject of why the consumer is toast, Roubini outdoes himself and comes up with twenty reasons [more...]

Date: 2008-11-16 07:13:22

Pimping For The Saudis?

I have written repeatedly when anti-Semitism boils to the top it suggests the world is sick and this sickness has eventually led to serious events - even wars.I have been very specific about my belief that war was imminent and wrote this as recently as several weeks before the new one began between Hamas and Israel [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 04:48:00

Seth Klarman: Investing Against Deflation

Sorry for the thin posting recently, I’ve been going through final exams ... , hyperinflation, where people are afraid of commodity prices rising, to a total deflation in no time ... ? When we, as value investors, invest we look for margins of safety. But if asset prices are falling, the margin [more...]

Date: 2008-12-05 15:38:59

Causes: Where Did All That Money Come From?

We’ve gotten some comments to the effect that, for all the discussion of the financial crisis and the various bailouts, we haven’t looked hard at the underlying causes of the financial crisis and accompanying recession. The problem, as I think I’ve hinted at various times, is that any macroeconomic event of this magnitude is overdetermined, [more...]

Date: 2008-12-07 02:21:25

New Zealand’s leading public intellectual of the Left, Chris Trotter, seems to have been genuinely unsettled by the defeat of Labour in 2008. Toys have been thrown, and targets targeted. In an initial attack of post-election spleen Chris railed against those voters who brought in National as ” . . [more...]

Date: 2009-01-04 08:19:10

Let the 2009 Forecasts Begin, Commercial Real Estate, Money Supply Growth, Top Commodities for 2009, and More!

by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias 2009 to be “really bad” says IMF… will the recession exceed expectations? The second wave of the housing crisis… commercial real estate pros already plead for bailout John Williams on last week’s stunning money supply growth Asia faring no better… Japan, [more...]

Date: 2008-12-22 19:27:49

delhistockclub Antique-Sun Sets On Oil, Negative for Reliance, Cairn, Selan, Gail & Ongc

Please find enclosed our Oil & Gas sector report 'Sun sets on oil era' covering Indian upstream companies ... prices, since with falling commodity prices and increased availability of contractors, capital costs ... . Key highlights:•        Contrary to market expectations, we believe that oil prices to remain [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 06:05:00

That Bastion of American Socialism

Over the past few months the American mainstream chatter has experienced a sudden spike in the gratuitous use of the term "Socialist." It was prompted by the attempts of the federal government to resuscitate insolvent financial institutions. These attempts included offers of guarantees to their clients, [more...]

Date: 2009-01-10 22:15:00

Just a Bit Too Early to Follow Wall Street’s Playbook

The U.S. capital markets have opened 2009 with what seems to be an emerging consensus of an economic recovery of some sort in the second half of the year. Heeding Warren Buffett’s advice not to wait until they can hear the robins (lest spring will already have sprung) [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 15:26:38

Potash Corp. to Cut Production 20 Percent; Will Pricing Be Preserved? (POT)

Potash Corp. came out late yesterday and joined the likes of Mosaic (MOS) ... , noting that global inventories of both fertilizers and grains remain at historical lows. Protecting ... that a production cut from the market leader before prices break down is a good thing. It could ensure [more...]

Date: 2008-12-10 10:05:28

Sub-prime crisis - History repeats itself!

Starting from early last year, in a series of magisterial working papers, ... on a historical comparison of how 22 economies, including emerging economies, came out from a major ... a severe financial crisis and doesn’t peak until four years after the crisis; housing prices fall 35 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 18:44:00

Fixing the Enron Economy...

The sudden collapse of what had been assumed by most to be an apparently robust global economy bears parallels to that of Enron (a company that was the fifth largest in the US by value at its peak) which had invented the 'asset-lite' energy trading model, and was declaring record profits before its collapse in 2001 [more...]

Date: 2008-12-04 18:32:00

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