"Futures Prices Determine Physical Oil Prices"

It's gratifying when someone takes on a topic I had wanted to address and does a better job than I could have ... that trading in oil futures can't really influence the price of physical oil because it doesn't ... of futures trading. Even better, they should be required to explain in detail how it is that investors [more...]

Date: 2008-07-04 02:09:30

Blog posts (378) | Videos (9)
 

Chart fun: Sugar in your coffee?

Commodities are particularly fascinating to me, as well as the relationships between them. In this chart I map out the relationship between the prices of coffee and sugar nearby futures ... futures prices* imagetitle (click to enlarge) * inflation is ignored A quick gut reaction [more...]

Date: 2008-12-26 15:07:00

Why are prices falling? Why does this scare the bourgeoisie?

by Eddy Laing“Credit Suisse chief economist Joseph Tan told The Straits Times that the dramatic fall in prices was due to ‘massive unwinding’ by ... . These speculators - whose bets on future prices drove prices to record highs - are fleeing to safer havens ... (a ‘commodity’ to Marxian economists) is determined by the amount of labor that goes into [more...]

Date: 2009-01-11 17:02:15

Shocker: Federal Regulators Conclude That Oil Speculators Not Responsible For High Gas Prices

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has released financial data indicating that commodities traders engaged in oil speculation have had little ... driving the future price of oil down. Commodity index funds also have a much smaller share ... of transactions worth billions of dollars between January and June of this year. Commodity futures [more...]

Date: 2008-09-15 14:50:11

Stuck on stupid

What with the current high jinks in the financial markets we are of course hearing the usual calls for re-regulation of said markets ... . For example, they never actually take delivery of those commodities: meaning that when it comes to delivery time, the moment when the futures price meets the spot price, they are in fact sellers [more...]

Date: 2008-09-15 05:18:42

Some rumblings on next FOMC Meeting Tuesday, 16 Dec 2008

Sometimes, it takes a while before "the obvious" becomes "obvious" and stares at you right in the face.I don't know why I didn't see this earlier ... fund futures are now pricing in a 98 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates ... today, the same Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in 100% probability of a 75bp cut [more...]

Date: 2008-12-11 16:53:00

What Can Onions Teach Us About Oil Prices?

Onions have no futures market, yet their recent price volatility makes the swings in oil and corn look tame ... in a commodity not in today's news: onions. The bulbous root is the only commodity for which futures trading is banned. Back in 1958, onion growers convinced themselves that futures traders were [more...]

Date: 2008-06-29 15:52:02

November 2008 Philippine Gas Prices

I was mistaken to believe last month that the downward momentum in Philippine gas prices has slowed down as ... and cocoa futures prices. “Sugar, cocoa and coffee have outperformed energies, metals and even grains ... In recent weeks, all three commodities have shown resilience after a period of falling prices. [more...]

Date: 2008-11-30 04:01:37

GasPredictor.com Announces First Local Edition of Gas Predictor Newsletter

Forecasts of the next day's gas prices in Nashua, New Hampshire, will be available via e-mail commencing Monday, January 12, ... at about 4:30 PM Eastern Time, are based on the price of gasoline futures and on the retail prices ... providing short-term forecasts of changes in retail gasoline prices, has announced that its first [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 09:45:00

Anagram:Death Magnetic/It Changed Meat

December 29, 2008 – 7:39 pm Posted in Editorial, Hamas, Israel, Links, METAL, Metallica, Music, Politics, Quotes, War, news, oil, opinion, ... , Politics, Quotes, video, War           News from the financial front first.  Oil prices are going up due ... a barrel before futures prices went back down.  Even with a decrease in global and [more...]

Date: 2008-12-30 00:39:09

UK: Property Futures Say Housing Prices to Fall 50% in Real Terms

So many bad numbers have come out about residential real estate that they all begin to blend together. But a figure as grim as "50% decline", applied to an entire market, even if in real rather than nominal terms, is a stunner. This grim forecast for UK real estate comes from a futures index based on the Halifax monthly house price index [more...]

Date: 2008-06-09 05:34:34

Energy prices rise as Gaza conflict escalates

Crude futures prices rose again Jan. 5 as the conflict in Gaza continues to escalate, said analysts with Raymond James & Associates Inc ... blending rose 7.l9¢ to $1.18/gal on NYMEX. Heating oil for the same month climbed 9.6¢ to $1.576/gal ... . Also boosting oil prices, analysts said, was news that Kuwait, the Organization of Petroleum [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 11:52:09

Oil sinks again, but market tries to draw line at $60 a barrel

The crude oil market looks as if it’s trying to make a stand at the $60-a-barrel level, raising questions about how much lower gasoline prices might go. Near-term oil futures fell ... materials. The price then bounced up to $63 by 11 a.m. PST, only to fall back again. Futures ended [more...]

Date: 2008-11-06 21:08:58

Get Ready For $2 Gas as Fuel Prices Continue to Rise

The national average price for a gallon of gasoline posted their seventh consecutive gain on Tuesday, ... to data from the Department of Energy. Futures traders were also worried about potential fallout ... gasoline prices generally lag beind oil futures which traded above $50 a barrel today, up from below $32 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 18:18:07

Wall Street braces for 2009’s first full week

NEW YORK – Wall Street will open for trading Monday at a two-month high as investors have grown more optimistic that the worst of the market’s rout ... analysts do not discount that the market may retreat and retest lows seen in November. The next few ... news. Early futures prices pointed to a negative start to the week. Dow industrials futures dipped [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 11:21:47

NYSE Euronext picks up 5 percent in MCX

largest commodity derivatives exchange, the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), through its affiliate Euronext NV, it announced late Tuesday night ... business, entered a licensing agreement July 31 2006 for MCX to use Liffe futures prices, enabling the Indian entity to list domestic ‘mini’ futures contracts for Robusta coffee based on Liffe futures [more...]

Date: 2008-07-02 09:35:21

Friday's Commentary & When to Chase a Trade

Updated late Tuesday and Friday nights Friday’s Close for Jan 9th, 2008 Written by: Mike Coval It was not much different than we expected, ... out of work kept the price of Crude futures flat and trading at $40.70 a barrel. Track the price of crude with the Oil ETF, USO. Mega player Chevron, CVX, fell $1.42 after issuing a profit warning [more...]

Date: 2009-01-10 00:43:26

Green Ink: Oil?s Future Is Pricey

paper Crude oil futures inched above $65 after earlier declines, boosted by rising stock markets, Bloomberg reports ... social unrest. Lower oil prices are self-correcting. Just look at the 2013 futures price, says the WSJ— ... . But dismal economic data out of the U.S. and Asia has some analysts forecasting $55 oil. China [more...]

Date: 2008-11-04 14:19:44

Managing change vs Managing uncertainty

I just had an e-mail correspondence with a client in the financial industry who pointed out something interesting:" ... on the current financial turmoil. The introductory paragraph says it all: "The future of capitalism ... and other commodity prices, lurched wildly, while housing prices in Spain, the United Kingdom [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 08:58:20

Not an optimal investment allocation

Bob Greer and John Cavalieri at Pimco have put together an interesting article that drives yet another stake into the investment thesis favored by ... two-thirds of their retirement money to stocks and continuing to do so indefinitely into the future ... commodity prices as well. We saw it most obviously at the gas pump, but in fact a very broad range [more...]

Date: 2008-11-19 15:39:00

Lottery System Development

I've been working on a lottery system based on intuition rather than the more common strategy of analaysing patterns or distributions in historical ... out by 2,3,4,...49 (use the modulus operator when the number goes above 49).From the world of trading ... can be used to forecast future price levels in many products, ranging from currencies to commodities [more...]

Date: 2009-01-11 11:34:00

Ethanol Drowns in Monster Midwest Storms

(((At this rate, Coca Cola's gonna start using real sugar instead of corn fructose. Imagine your neighbors thin. And hungry ... .))) Corn futures prices have risen in the past week to record prices of more than $7 a bushel [more...]

Date: 2008-06-13 19:54:56

Don't Shoot The Price Messenger, aka Speculator

The futures market may be a convenient scapegoat, but it's simply a price discovery mechanism ... and demand, as well as the rate of inflation. The political theory is that such futures trading ... fundamentals. Thus, $4 gas. But there's no inherent reason to "bet" that commodities will go up rather than [more...]

Date: 2008-06-24 15:39:02

Paul Krugman Critiques Guillermo Calvo on Commodity Prices

The fact that somebody has bought an oil futures contract means that somebody else has sold one--hence no effect on demand without real storage ... , as far as I can tell, online. Why isn’t Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv on JSTOR?). Speculation can affect ... institutions that buy commodity futures as an investment — are responsible for the price surge. The [more...]

Date: 2008-06-22 15:35:07

Soda Popping

Soda Popping by John ~ January 11th, 2009 | (0 views) Financial bubbles have burst all throughout the financial industry ... with the fallout from a volatile stock market. Beverage manufacturers have seen those costs passed ... by Americans) there is no fall in soft drink prices… Or Corn futures for that matter. Another quirk [more...]

Date: 2009-01-11 16:15:53

"More Speculation about Those Oil Speculators"

A Washington Post article claiming that one firm, Vitrol, "at one point in July,.. ... , and so on. If light sweet alone, are we talking about just futures, or futures plus options? Or is Cho ... in commodity prices. Jim Hamilton throws cold water on this idea. He has other objections to the article [more...]

Date: 2008-08-22 07:24:00

Credit crunch crunching markets

If recent conversations with elevator managers and farmers are even slightly predictive, it’s gonna be a long, ... downtrend lines from Sept. 23’s action on futures price charts for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton ... the harvest season peak for Dec. corn futures at $5.72 per [more...]

Date: 2008-12-18 05:58:00

Samuelson on Why We Should (Not) Shoot the Speculators

Who are these offensive souls? Well, they often don’t fit the stereotype of sleazy high rollers: ... and producers of commodities to hedge. Airlines can lock in fuel prices by buying oil futures; farmers can lock ... generally don’t buy the physical goods, whether oil or corn. Instead, they trade “futures contracts,” [more...]

Date: 2008-07-01 15:26:38

Economist Interest Rate Predictions

There are 3 things you need to know about Economist Predictions:1. Their short term predictions are generally lousy ... , some expect 25 basis point cut, even when futures markets were pricing in nearly 100% probability ... expect the bond yields to steadily increase over the same period.My own opinion is that in the long [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 05:59:00

President Bush Threatens Veto of Poison-pill Laden Drilling Bill; Oil Falls to $90/bbl

—Gabriel Malor So far, Republicans have managed not to cave on offshore drilling (though ANWR seems to be out of the question) ... . In related news, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission actually looked through the data ... the six-month period. In other words, index traders and swap dealers were driving the future price [more...]

Date: 2008-09-17 14:55:10

Over-dependence on derivatives hit AIG

The US financial tsunami has washed out giant investment banks of the US and has led to many commercial banks being bought over or nationalised ... to speculate on the future price of commodities or shares - without buying the underlying investment ... , the inaccuracy of which may not be exposed for many years. Derivatives like futures, options and [more...]

Date: 2008-10-03 10:29:14

The gas legislation we pass

By Kate Sheppard The House of Representatives took up a triumvirate of environment and energy-related bills today, ... Futures Trading Commission to exert tougher oversight of the oil futures markets. In a 402-19 vote ... or unreasonable fluctuations" in energy futures prices and trading activities that "prevent [more...]

Date: 2008-06-27 00:13:20

What is up with oil?

Posted by Daniel Hall on December 19, 2008 The pithy answer is nothing — not production, not consumption, and certainly not the price ... gas. 2) Oil futures are not tremendously influenced by OPEC’s announced cuts.  OPEC does ... countries oversell their quotes, and the budgetary pressure on some of these governments — who spent [more...]

Date: 2008-12-19 17:09:10

Alan Knowles, Haywood Securities: Finding that Elusive Bottom

Source: The Energy Report Haywood Senior Oil and Gas Analyst Alan Knowles says we haven’t seen a bottom yet, ... that are $45 today were $148 last summer, so while the futures indicate current market sentiment, they are not the best indicator of future prices. The contract that we’re talking about right [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 15:31:26

Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog–Tuesday

  Tuesday, January 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS   The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil futures prices that have pushed back ... , the U.S. T-Bond market has suffered serious near-term technical damage to now suggest that a major [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 13:13:28

What We Know About Remote Viewing

From Miracles of Mind by Russell Targ and Jane Katra For a phenomenon thought in many circles not to exist, ... can sense present, past and future activities at target sites. In 1982, nine remote viewing forecasts were made four days in advance for changes in the price of silver futures on the COMEX commodity [more...]

Date: 2008-12-18 16:31:22

Oil falls below $54 as US demand outlook worsens

Markets in the United States are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, but electronic trading on the Nymex continues ... from a low of $52.62 earlier in the session. Investors tend to increase their holdings in commodities ... cents to $53.21 on the ICE Futures exchange. Prices have hovered just above three-year lows [more...]

Date: 2008-11-27 13:01:00

Commodities Reprieve Coming to an End

A guest post from Frank Shump. Frank is a veteran from the financial services industry, and currently authors a blog called Thefinancecastle ... in the near future, as some oil fields out there aren’t nearly as cost effective at these prices ... are out there on the future of other commodities. The World Bank, for example, believes that the global [more...]

Date: 2008-12-15 16:54:45

U.S Market Update

- Equity markets have begun the week in positive territory, helped by declining commodity prices. Oil futures have shed about $4/bbl and gold has fallen this morning as the dollar has firmed ... % in Chicago led by Wheat while August natural gas is off close to 5% despite the formulation [more...]

Date: 2008-07-07 15:35:29

Opening Comments January 5 2009

Prices of Treasury coupon securities slumped in overseas trading as the retreat which began last week has turned into a mini rout in bond prices ... modest gains. Futures market trading suggests that US indices will open with modest declines ... on the Long Bond has climbed 6 basis points to 2.85 percent. The 2year/10 year spread has widened to 158 [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 12:36:51

Crude Oil Contango, And Not A Tanker To Be Found

Crude oil is currently in contango as futures are trading at a significant premium to spot prices (see WSJ article). As of yesterday's close, spot prices were around $43 a barrel as May futures were trading near $50 a barrel. Unfortunately, to profit from the difference, you need to store the crude somewhere, yet [more...]

Date: 2009-01-09 14:52:52

Chesapeake's Cutback of Natural Gas Expenditures

Note: This is an updated version of a post from earlier this week. Some more recent quotes have been added at the end of this post ... cost of producing- to currently above the price of natural gas futures. While shutting ... At $100 Oil, What Can the Scientist Say to the Investor? The Energy Return on Time Peak Oil - Why [more...]

Date: 2008-09-23 20:12:34

The Best of 2008: A year not to be forgotten

It’s the end of 2008 and many traders are saying “Good ridance!” To them I say be careful what you ask for, because you just might get it ... R? Understanding Open Interest in Futures and Options Trading Crude Oil Prices and the Economic Stimulus ... in the markets. Now, of course, the complaint is about too much. Funny how the pendulum swings like that, [more...]

Date: 2008-12-31 13:54:33

Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog–Monday

  Monday, January 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS   The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil futures prices. JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY * I was able to get away from the office for a few days between the Christmas and New Year’ [more...]

Date: 2009-01-05 13:26:05

Oil Reclaims $120 a Barrel

The rebound in oil, which has carried crude past $121 a barrel, can no longer be dismissed as a “blip” after crude fell within $110 last week ... like much. With varying fundamental issues in play, traders are also looking at the price ... analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures. Mr. McGillian says this rally will have to push through [more...]

Date: 2008-08-21 15:33:19

The Fed Doesn't Understand the Powerful Impact of Their Own Money Printing

The Fed is much more pessimistic in their recent FOMC minutes, than they need to be ... to hinder household spending over the near term. Home building was expected to contract further ... to rise over the next two years in line with the path indicated by futures market prices, but to remain [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 00:04:02

Fed Preparing For Another Interest Rate Cut

With inflation concerns now being trumped by the fear of deflation, and the economy still struggling, ... Fund futures are pricing in a tiny chance of a 75bp rate cut next month. The housing market ... currency pairs have been consolidating since the middle of last week and the FOMC minutes could [more...]

Date: 2008-11-20 16:38:19

Study Shows Speculators Helped LOWER Oil Prices

It was said to be the year of speculators gone wild ... , the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has offered hard statistical data that financial trading hasn't ... -month period. In other words, index traders and swap dealers were driving the future price of oil [more...]

Date: 2008-09-17 15:39:38

SPECULATORS ARE NOT DRIVING UP OIL PRICES, REPORT SAYS

As Congress debates how to curtail the role of speculators and rein in rising oil prices, ... report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with help from six other agencies, including ... offer investors a future return linked to commodity markets, were roughly balanced between purchases [more...]

Date: 2008-07-25 13:21:56

Are Dems Poised To Win Two Of Three Remaining Senate Races?

While Democrats have already secured 57 seats in the U.S ... . But Nate Silver is saying that the pattern of uncounted early and absentee votes in Alaska could well ... that a full recount is not going to end well for them. By the way, here are the current prices for futures [more...]

Date: 2008-11-11 18:42:24

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