Safe Harbor for Prediction Markets?

As everyone who has read The Wisdom of the Crowds knows, prediction markets are excellent predictors of future events like elections ... Professor John McGinnis reports, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is recognizing the benefits ... , exempting them from cumbersome financial trading laws. As McGinnis argues, creating such an exception would [more...]

Date: 2008-07-11 19:29:49

Blog posts (24) | Videos (10)
 

Intrade's Conditional Prediction Markets

We have often discussed the possible benefits of prediction markets for reducing bias ... study of real-money conditional futures markets. So how are they doing? Here is some data ... range consistent with current trading prices. (Peter provides continually-updated information [more...]

Date: 2008-07-29 23:14:54

Technical Analysis

by Walter Fox A technique used to forecast the movement of stock prices based on past market data is called technical analysis ... the future of the markets and trading against those predictions. Fundamental Analysis does the same ... such as this, serve as graphic indicators by which an analyst will make trading decisions. Critics argue [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 19:10:02

The Government Wants Your Opinion on Prediction-Markets Regulation

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is soliciting public comment on the regulatory treatment of event (prediction) ... to that enjoyed by established futures and options exchanges. Aside from the obvious libertarian argument [more...]

Date: 2008-07-03 22:26:38

Reassessing Roubini's Predictions

Unfortunately for Roubini, there is no Nobel Prize in Economic for being the best predictor of global financial markets ... , Nouriel predicted the potential shutdown of financial markets. A day later U.S. stock futures suspended trading after declines of more than 6% at opening tripped the circuit breakers. Nonetheless [more...]

Date: 2008-11-03 08:05:00

Perspctv Relaunches Comparison Dashboard

This year’s US election cycle brought us a number of interesting web sites to track election news, polls, and results ... , and futures market predictions, and created timelines of much of the data. In addition, Perspctv scrolled [more...]

Date: 2008-11-06 14:27:28

Janet Yellen on risks and prospects for the U.S. economy

This morning we were pleased to welcome Janet Yellen, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to our UCSD Economics Roundtable ... of unsold homes remain at elevated levels.... Third, the futures market for house prices predicts further [more...]

Date: 2008-07-07 17:26:34

CFTC Event Market Comment

In May the US CFTC declared that it was considering offering more legal approval for "markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, ... insurance, and common-risk-hedging futures, it could make sense to have a distinct regulatory regime for markets whose main reason to exist is the info that they collect. Compared with existing commodities [more...]

Date: 2008-07-07 21:18:07

Economist Interest Rate Predictions

There are 3 things you need to know about Economist Predictions:1. Their short term predictions are generally lousy ... , some expect 25 basis point cut, even when futures markets were pricing in nearly 100% probability ... expect the bond yields to steadily increase over the same period.My own opinion is that in the long [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 05:59:00

Historic Home Sales Predict Future Path - Astounding!

Having just experienced the toughest year in real estate brokerage since before 1991, my thoughts have already turned to 2009 and beyond, wondering what the future has in store for this battered real estate market. As the eternal ... , and I have presented proof that Tallahassee home prices are dropping in a previous blog. The Future [more...]

Date: 2008-09-23 11:52:02

Four Key Housing Trends Critical To Market Awareness

So many different news agencies report how the real estate market is doing, ... allows us to roughly predict the future sales trend. Sales - The number of homes that successfully [more...]

Date: 2008-09-16 11:11:25

AN INSIDER’S VIEW FROM THE CAPITAL MARKETS COOPERATIVE TRADING DESK:

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets  –   January 5, 2009 As Yogi Berra so wisely observed, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” We were still receiving Bear ... almost every day, and almost every asset class – bonds, stocks, real estate, and commodities – lost value [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 14:11:21

10/26/2008 - Analysis for the next week

The next monday is very difficult to be predicted because the market participants from entirely the world are becoming irrational (Trading in the panic mode, futures halted). As usually I refer to whom many peoples believe ... the image to enlargeThe second is coming from The Headline Charts, here is the summary:If the end [more...]

Date: 2008-10-26 17:04:00

Predicting the grain market is like checking the chicken entrails

If you drive down state Route 46 north of the Eastwood Mall, there used to be a sign for a “reader and advisor.” You see one of those once in awhile ... . Now that we are back in the fours on futures, we can look for that next 50 cents, or we can expect ... now is that we have lost demand. All commodities, farm and nonfarm, are trading lower. Gas is [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 07:58:13

An Organic Bubble? Will Hard Times Make Us More Level-Headed?

Will hard times make us more realistic? As individuals, possibly, in some respects. As a directed society, no ... , it will resort to (other forms of) compulsion (like forced labour which I predict to have a great future, soon ... Smith Institute seem to be "dead".) Has the bottom dropped out of the organic market? Probably. Alex [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 22:24:03

The Economy - Nowhere To Go But Up

As we slowly shed the rotting skin of a dismal year a resolute optimism prevails and although hurdles lie ahead, we have nowhere to go but up ...   looking backward. Commodities were here before the stock market, and they’ll be here after. Investments in commodities and managed futures, according to Marketwatch, Bloomberg and Barclays, are predicted [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 21:34:51

4 Real Estate Trends Worth Watching

Now that the real estate market has departed from the traditionally hot summer season, ... under contract do not necessarily predict what will sell in the future (as these are only contracts and many fail to close), but they are an indication of the strength of near-future sales [more...]

Date: 2008-11-17 13:44:46

AN INSIDER’S VIEW FROM THE CAPITAL MARKETS COOPERATIVE TRADING DESK:

The Week Ahead in the Capital Markets  –   December 15, 2008 Interest rates dropped to record lows last week, ... today and tomorrow, and is widely expected to drop Fed funds to 0.50% (futures predict even lower ... surge of defaults looms with $1 trillion of Alt-A loans and $500 billion of option ARMs resetting [more...]

Date: 2008-12-15 19:15:43

Intrade Opens VP Palin Withdrawal Contract

Last week, we looked at the track record of Intrade regarding the VP nominees. Since then, its been an eventful few days. The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." (Note: I am more concerned with the futures [more...]

Date: 2008-09-02 20:17:27

Prospects for 2009

At first blush, prospects in 2009 look pretty grim. Unemployment is predicted to top 9%, massive retrenchment in the stock market industry, ... in the north, the government got tough on futures commodities, bursting the bubble by taking the energy out of energy futures gambling. Investor abuse in futures was circumvented for the short term [more...]

Date: 2009-01-04 13:50:35

Credit crunch crunching markets

If recent conversations with elevator managers and farmers are even slightly predictive, it’s gonna be a long, ... downtrend lines from Sept. 23’s action on futures price charts for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton ... the harvest season peak for Dec. corn futures at $5.72 per [more...]

Date: 2008-12-18 05:58:00

J. Lennox Scott & Dick Beeson Predictions vs. Reality

Some quotes from J. Lennox Scott about the local real estate market ... to appreciate, creating a great opportunity for buyers to position themselves for the future. Here’ ... an additional 30%. Some quotes from Dick Beeson, Tacoma Windermere broker and NWMLS director: January 2008 [more...]

Date: 2008-12-12 18:49:32

The End of Newspapers - Hard to Predict?

Image via Wikipedia There has been a great deal of discussion about whether the financial crisis was foreseeable or not, ... markets (the company's debt was recently reduced to junk status), the paper's future doesn't look good [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 22:14:19

Prediction Markets & Idea Futures effect Web Strategy

A wikipedia definition for predicitve markets “Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions [more...]

Date: 2009-01-12 23:04:50

24 Results