Speculation and Commodity Prices

Ah, good - I've been meaning to do something like this myself, but never got around to it ... is that commodities that feature no futures markets have experienced as much volatility as those that have them ... is present in commodities markets: Commodity Prices, Again: Are Speculators to Blame, by Jeff Frankel [more...]

Date: 2008-07-25 18:07:00

Blog posts (163) | Videos (19)
 

Managing change vs Managing uncertainty

I just had an e-mail correspondence with a client in the financial industry who pointed out something interesting:" ... on the current financial turmoil. The introductory paragraph says it all: "The future of capitalism ... and other commodity prices, lurched wildly, while housing prices in Spain, the United Kingdom [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 08:58:20

Paul Krugman Critiques Guillermo Calvo on Commodity Prices

The fact that somebody has bought an oil futures contract means that somebody else has sold one--hence no effect on demand without real storage ... , as far as I can tell, online. Why isn’t Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv on JSTOR?). Speculation can affect ... institutions that buy commodity futures as an investment — are responsible for the price surge. The [more...]

Date: 2008-06-22 15:35:07

SPECULATORS ARE NOT DRIVING UP OIL PRICES, REPORT SAYS

As Congress debates how to curtail the role of speculators and rein in rising oil prices, ... report by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with help from six other agencies, including ... offer investors a future return linked to commodity markets, were roughly balanced between purchases [more...]

Date: 2008-07-25 13:21:56

Maryland’s Gensler finds a spot in Obama administration

Some Marylanders’ names have been tossed around as possibilities for posts in the Obama administration (i.e. former Rep. Wayne Gilchrest and Dr ... as his pick to head up the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC oversees $5 trillion in futures and options trading — oil and other commodities prices have been hot-button issues there this year [more...]

Date: 2008-12-18 18:11:06

Not an optimal investment allocation

Bob Greer and John Cavalieri at Pimco have put together an interesting article that drives yet another stake into the investment thesis favored by ... two-thirds of their retirement money to stocks and continuing to do so indefinitely into the future ... commodity prices as well. We saw it most obviously at the gas pump, but in fact a very broad range [more...]

Date: 2008-11-19 15:39:00

Commodities Continue to Tank

Now that deflation worries are upon us, even the mainstream media is taking note of the reversal of the commodities price surge of earlier this year ... of investment money from commodity futures into safer havens like government bonds.... “Commodities [more...]

Date: 2008-10-14 05:36:25

THE ONION CONUNDRUM

Before the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission starts scrutinizing the role that speculators may have played in driving up fuel and food prices, investigators may want to take a look at price swings a commodity not in today's news: onions, says Fortune magazine.Onions are the only commodity for which futures trading is banned. Back [more...]

Date: 2008-07-09 13:14:56

"More Speculation about Those Oil Speculators"

A Washington Post article claiming that one firm, Vitrol, "at one point in July,.. ... , and so on. If light sweet alone, are we talking about just futures, or futures plus options? Or is Cho ... in commodity prices. Jim Hamilton throws cold water on this idea. He has other objections to the article [more...]

Date: 2008-08-22 07:24:00

Who let the oil market be manipulated?

For anyone who believes that speculation by energy traders explains at least a portion of the run-up in oil prices, the announcement that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating oil market ... some commodity trading exchanges to operate without oversight while others must report what's going [more...]

Date: 2008-05-30 15:51:47

Why are prices falling? Why does this scare the bourgeoisie?

by Eddy Laing“Credit Suisse chief economist Joseph Tan told The Straits Times that the dramatic fall in prices was due to ‘massive unwinding’ by ... . These speculators - whose bets on future prices drove prices to record highs - are fleeing to safer havens ... (a ‘commodity’ to Marxian economists) is determined by the amount of labor that goes into [more...]

Date: 2009-01-11 17:02:15

Oil Reclaims $120 a Barrel

The rebound in oil, which has carried crude past $121 a barrel, can no longer be dismissed as a “blip” after crude fell within $110 last week ... like much. With varying fundamental issues in play, traders are also looking at the price ... analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures. Mr. McGillian says this rally will have to push through [more...]

Date: 2008-08-21 15:33:19

Chart fun: Sugar in your coffee?

Commodities are particularly fascinating to me, as well as the relationships between them. In this chart I map out the relationship between the prices of coffee and sugar nearby futures ... futures prices* imagetitle (click to enlarge) * inflation is ignored A quick gut reaction [more...]

Date: 2008-12-26 15:07:00

Over-dependence on derivatives hit AIG

The US financial tsunami has washed out giant investment banks of the US and has led to many commercial banks being bought over or nationalised ... to speculate on the future price of commodities or shares - without buying the underlying investment ... , the inaccuracy of which may not be exposed for many years. Derivatives like futures, options and [more...]

Date: 2008-10-03 10:29:14

What Can Onions Teach Us About Oil Prices?

Onions have no futures market, yet their recent price volatility makes the swings in oil and corn look tame ... in a commodity not in today's news: onions. The bulbous root is the only commodity for which futures trading is banned. Back in 1958, onion growers convinced themselves that futures traders were [more...]

Date: 2008-06-29 15:52:02

U.S Market Update

- Equity markets have begun the week in positive territory, helped by declining commodity prices. Oil futures have shed about $4/bbl and gold has fallen this morning as the dollar has firmed ... % in Chicago led by Wheat while August natural gas is off close to 5% despite the formulation [more...]

Date: 2008-07-07 15:35:29

What We Know About Remote Viewing

From Miracles of Mind by Russell Targ and Jane Katra For a phenomenon thought in many circles not to exist, ... can sense present, past and future activities at target sites. In 1982, nine remote viewing forecasts were made four days in advance for changes in the price of silver futures on the COMEX commodity [more...]

Date: 2008-12-18 16:31:22

Speculators not to blame

In certain quarters people keep arguing that the surging oil and food prices are caused by speculative international investments in these commodities. People who understand how the market is working have always maintained that the principle effect of commodity futures is beneficial because they smooth extreme swings of prices [more...]

Date: 2008-07-11 05:22:11

Gold, the solution to high commodity prices

If policy makers were astute, they would quickly seize on the obvious solution to today's soaring commodity prices that are causing so much pain and ... , corn, and other goods on commodities futures exchanges that really weren't set up to handle the sort [more...]

Date: 2008-06-20 14:21:00

Oligarch Loyalty No Longer a Given

From the Lex Column of the Financial Times: The crisis has highlighted that Russia is hardwired into the global economy ... foreign policy has a cost in terms of battered confidence and capital flight. That may restrain future ... adventurism undermined that grand bargain. Lower commodity prices, slowing growth, will make [more...]

Date: 2008-09-19 13:39:05

Closing Enron Loophole Would Drop Oil Prices 25% - 50% Overnight

The way Republicans tell it, the minute we start drilling off the coasts of California, Florida and elsewhere, the price of gas will go down ... for the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC), the government board that oversees commodities markets: “Yes ... follows.) The Enron Loophole is the nickname for a provision written into the [more...]

Date: 2008-06-22 18:55:04

Commodities Reprieve Coming to an End

A guest post from Frank Shump. Frank is a veteran from the financial services industry, and currently authors a blog called Thefinancecastle ... in the near future, as some oil fields out there aren’t nearly as cost effective at these prices ... are out there on the future of other commodities. The World Bank, for example, believes that the global [more...]

Date: 2008-12-15 16:54:45

The Case of the Telltale Hoax

The Case of the Telltale Hoax Who was behind the Mumbai massacre? ... commodities, including energy and agriculture futures, also ... commodities tumble NEW YORK (AP) — Gold prices continued their descent Friday as a troubling [more...]

Date: 2008-12-08 13:24:10

Africa’s Economic Outlook for 2009

As 2008 comes to a close, it is fitting to reflect on the events of the past year and consider how they will shape Africa and its economy in 2009 ... -oriented think tank in Ghana, paints a realistic picture of Africa’s future economic outlook given the downturn in commodity prices and the ongoing global economic crisis. He predicts that countries [more...]

Date: 2008-12-29 21:30:15

BIS: No Evidence of Second-Round Effects From High Oil Prices

Central bank concerns about the “second-round effects” of rising oil and food prices on medium-term inflation rates may have been without a strong ... prices. But a paper by two BIS economists found that in recent years “higher commodity prices ... began to expect higher inflation in the future.” Sweden’s Riksbank raised its key rate three times [more...]

Date: 2008-12-08 13:22:17

Stuck on stupid

What with the current high jinks in the financial markets we are of course hearing the usual calls for re-regulation of said markets ... . For example, they never actually take delivery of those commodities: meaning that when it comes to delivery time, the moment when the futures price meets the spot price, they are in fact sellers [more...]

Date: 2008-09-15 05:18:42

Listen to this article

In a VoxEU post, Guillermo Calvo argues forcefully that rising commodity prices are the result of excess liquidity rather ... futures have been banned. The thrust of this column is that we are not going through another self ... , that the demand for commodities for current consumption or production is completely inelastic (food [more...]

Date: 2008-06-20 08:07:32

Oil falls below $54 as US demand outlook worsens

Markets in the United States are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, but electronic trading on the Nymex continues ... from a low of $52.62 earlier in the session. Investors tend to increase their holdings in commodities ... cents to $53.21 on the ICE Futures exchange. Prices have hovered just above three-year lows [more...]

Date: 2008-11-27 13:01:00

November 2008 Philippine Gas Prices

I was mistaken to believe last month that the downward momentum in Philippine gas prices has slowed down as ... and cocoa futures prices. “Sugar, cocoa and coffee have outperformed energies, metals and even grains ... In recent weeks, all three commodities have shown resilience after a period of falling prices. [more...]

Date: 2008-11-30 04:01:37

‘A Hanging Concentrates the Human Mind’

Cross-Posted at Left Flank (featuring Charlie Rose’s interview with Martin Wolf) ... see 6% GDP growth next year. And, commodity prices, including oil, continue to fall (although ... their future”: either spend, or save. I found this interesting because, amid the rush to reform [more...]

Date: 2008-10-18 04:20:55

Lottery System Development

I've been working on a lottery system based on intuition rather than the more common strategy of analaysing patterns or distributions in historical ... out by 2,3,4,...49 (use the modulus operator when the number goes above 49).From the world of trading ... can be used to forecast future price levels in many products, ranging from currencies to commodities [more...]

Date: 2009-01-11 11:34:00

Mexico 2009: Stimulus, Security and Neighbourly Assistance

Mexico 2009: Stimulus, Security and Neighbourly Assistance January 8th, 2009 by Richard Basas This week brought some ever-growing attention on Mexico. With the decline in commodity prices ... future jobs for the large minority of Ontario’s workforce that are linked to autos. Mexico, while [more...]

Date: 2009-01-08 23:00:24

Gasoline

... the commodities market with inflated futures prices. Fear of political production disruption or supply cutback [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 21:21:15

Oil speculation bigger than we knew

by Frank James For the past few months as oil-futures prices were breaking records with a barrel of oil topping out around $150, ... ' influence. Last month, the main U.S. regulator of commodities trading, the Commodity Futures Trading [more...]

Date: 2008-08-15 20:09:58

Commodity Boom Turns Bust in 2008 as Worldwide Economy Crumbles

Commodity prices in 2008 plunged the most in five decades as demand for energy, metals and grains tumbled in the second half because of the recession ... . Sugar, gold and hogs were the only other commodities to post gains. Gasoline futures declined ... on July 11. The 2008 low was 78.5 cents on Dec. 24. Crude oil futures tumbled a record 54 percent [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 21:23:20

Commodity Boom Turns Bust in 2008 as Worldwide Economy Crumbles

Commodity prices in 2008 plunged the most in five decades as demand for energy, metals and grains tumbled in the second half because of the recession ... . Sugar, gold and hogs were the only other commodities to post gains. Gasoline futures declined ... on July 11. The 2008 low was 78.5 cents on Dec. 24. Crude oil futures tumbled a record 54 percent [more...]

Date: 2009-01-03 09:25:14

President Bush Threatens Veto of Poison-pill Laden Drilling Bill; Oil Falls to $90/bbl

—Gabriel Malor So far, Republicans have managed not to cave on offshore drilling (though ANWR seems to be out of the question) ... . In related news, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission actually looked through the data ... the six-month period. In other words, index traders and swap dealers were driving the future price [more...]

Date: 2008-09-17 14:55:10

Deputy finance minister’s head in the sand

4 December, 2008 General News/Issues   Source : Malaysiakini Deputy finance minister’s head in the sand Charles Santiago | Dec 4, 08 2: ... slashed, future orders cut down to critical levels and retrenchments are being planned. Job losses ... palm and other commodity prices. Crude oil prices dropped to a three-year-low to US$48 yesterday [more...]

Date: 2008-12-04 07:39:45

Commodity Boom Turns Bust in 2008 as Worldwide Economy Crumbles

Commodity prices in 2008 plunged the most in five decades as demand for energy, metals and grains tumbled in the second half because of the recession ... percent, the most among CRB components. Cocoa climbed 31 percent, the biggest increase. Sugar, gold and hogs were the only other commodities to post gains. Gasoline futures declined to $1.0082 a [more...]

Date: 2009-01-02 17:46:41

60 Minutes: Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings?

60 Minutes: Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings? (CBS) ... , a commodity that was theoretically priced according to supply and demand doubled from $69 a barrel ... at a certain price at some date in the future. Read more... January 12, 2009 | Leave a Comment [more...]

Date: 2009-01-13 00:59:56

Mid East tension takes precious metal prices higher

Gold and silver prices go up amid thin trading volumesBullion metal prices ended higher on Monday, 29 December, ... dollar. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude ... prices are higher by 4.6%. Futures have averaged $865 in 2008. The dollar index has gained 8% this year [more...]

Date: 2008-12-30 04:20:00

Gas Prices: Boy, was I wrong….

  Back in May, I wrote an article on the continuously rising gas prices and future predictions ... Merrill Lynch Commodity Strategist Francisco Blanch and Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski, say that crude oil [more...]

Date: 2008-12-07 21:45:24

Samuelson on Why We Should (Not) Shoot the Speculators

Who are these offensive souls? Well, they often don’t fit the stereotype of sleazy high rollers: ... and producers of commodities to hedge. Airlines can lock in fuel prices by buying oil futures; farmers can lock ... generally don’t buy the physical goods, whether oil or corn. Instead, they trade “futures contracts,” [more...]

Date: 2008-07-01 15:26:38

Ernst & Young launches survey on how companies manage volatility in commodity Prices

/India PRwire/ - Professional services firm Ernst & Young today released its survey entitled, “Commodity price risk management survey 2008” ... . Relatively simpler instruments like forward and futures were used by more than 92% of the respondents [more...]

Date: 2008-12-16 11:56:06

Study Shows Speculators Helped LOWER Oil Prices

It was said to be the year of speculators gone wild ... , the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has offered hard statistical data that financial trading hasn't ... -month period. In other words, index traders and swap dealers were driving the future price of oil [more...]

Date: 2008-09-17 15:39:38

a wise man spoke…

Back in the long gone days of Summer 2008, our gas prices were in the $4.00 range. Congress was looking in to the price of oil and why it had risen ... futures market, in which investors buy and sell promises to deliver oil at a later date, and claimed ... commodity futures — “is almost equal to the increase in demand from China.” Many economists scoffed [more...]

Date: 2008-12-24 04:13:22

HOW OBAMA WOULD STIFLE DRUG INNOVATION

The pharmaceutical industry has begun to give up on developing drugs for routine medical problems in favor of discovering "specialty" ... controls -- based on a view of medical care as a commodity to be purchased at the lowest price, with little ... economically pernicious effect of price and access controls is how they distort future investment decisions [more...]

Date: 2008-10-21 13:35:56

2009 Stimulus Package Buoys US Dollar

Rising against the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc, the greenback sought strength in the release of preliminary plans for the Obama administration’s ... as supported, yet tepid growth, could be expected for the future.   In addition, helping the greenback gain ... percent on falling commodity prices and thin consumer spending.  The figure is significantly [more...]

Date: 2009-01-06 22:42:06

Traders bet LA/OC home prices fall 18.5% more

blog-trade.bmp Traders making commodity-like bets on future home pricing think that the LA/OC market will be further smacked by losses through November ‘09. TFS Derivatives, which makes a market [more...]

Date: 2008-10-08 20:17:57

China corn futures dip after week of price increases, metals keep rising

Major commodities kept an upward trend on Tuesday, with metals continuing a strong rise ... U.S. dollars a bushel on the latest trading day, equal to about 1,107 yuan a ton. In an effort ... a tonne during the week. May Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by the daily limit [more...]

Date: 2009-01-07 16:19:22

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